Samples drawn from a stochastic volatility model.

PyMC3 Beta!

Samples drawn from a stochastic volatility model.

Samples drawn from a stochastic volatility model.

Probabilistic programming allows for flexible specification of Bayesian statistical models in code. PyMC3 is a new, open-source probabilistic programmer framework with an intuitive, readable and concise, yet powerful, syntax that is close to the natural notation statisticians use to describe models. It features next-generation fitting techniques, such as the No U-Turn Sampler, that allow fitting complex models with thousands of parameters without specialized knowledge of fitting algorithms.

Stochastic volatility model

Stochastic volatility model

PyMC3 has recently seen rapid development. With the addition of two new major features: automatic transforms and missing value imputation, PyMC3 has become ready for wider use. PyMC3 is now refined enough that adding features is easy, so we don’t expect adding features in the future will require drastic changes. It has also become user friendly enough for a broader audience. Automatic transformations mean NUTS and find_MAP work with less effort, and friendly error messages mean its easy to diagnose problems with your model.

Thus, Thomas, Chris and I are pleased to announce that PyMC3 is now in Beta.

Try it out!

To get started with PyMC3, I recommend the Tutorial.

If you have a question, we are quite responsive on Stack Overflow and Twitter (@johnsalvatier@fonnesbeck and @twiecki). If you have a bug report please post it to our issues list.

Why Effective Altruists should care about dressing well

Edit (Feb 14 10pm): discuss context dependence more.

Look at the pictures below and notice any differences in your expectations about the people. If both people below tell you they’re building a company, which one would you be more surprised to see succeed? Which one would you be more surprised to learn has a PhD in Cognitive Science? Of the two, who would you be more comfortable introducing to your friends?

style shots (1)

Many people, including nerds and analytical people, will expect the person on the right to be smarter, more successful, better at difficult tasks and more socially competent. The person on the right has a slight aura of formidability about them.

Many analytical people look down on paying attention to fashion and caring too much about how you look, viewing it as frivolous and vain. I argue that knowing how to dress well and dress appropriately for your context is a valuable life skill that helps you be more effective and which is undervalued by analytical types.

The Why

Why does dressing well make you more effective? The basic reason is that people judge you based on the way you look. People look at your body and clothes and make guesses about you, and whether they make positive or negative guesses can affect you a lot. Even nerdy, weird, introverted, analytical people who say they don’t do this do this. Even you do this.

It is much better for you if all these people make lots of positive guesses about you. If people guess that you’re not conscientious or not part of their tribe, they will be less likely to consider you for a job or as a business partner, listen to you less and generally want to associate with you less. Getting good jobs or business partnerships, convincing people and having successful friends are all generally high value for whatever your goals are.

The process of guessing what kind of a person someone is is mostly fast and automatic: System 1. Your brain pattern matches and associates them with other people who dress similarly. If those people are conscientious, part of your tribe, socially deft and high status, you will guess similar things about them. If those people are forgetful, part of some other tribe, socially tone def and low status you will guess that about them.

So what characteristics do people infer from a well dressed appearance? The big relevant ones I see are

  • High conscientiousness
    You need detailed observation and attention skills to dress well.
  • Social group membership.
    Goths dress similarly, Silicon Valley nerds dress similarly.
  • Aura of competence
    Good traits correlate together in people.
  • Good social skills
    You have to care about and pay attention to people to dress well.
  • High social status
    Other people will infer you have these good traits, and give you higher status.

A benefit I noticed only recently is that I feel much more free to discuss the odd beliefs I have about charity, like thinking you should mostly donate to the best charity, or that you should spend time studying rationality, or the odd hobbies I have like hosting Effective Altruism meetups and doing statistics for fun. With a slight aura of formidability about me, I am usually judged as eccentric and interesting rather than weird and nerdy. As a result, I talk about Effective Altruism and Rationality with new people much more often than I used to. If you’re socially desirable, you can afford to do weirder things.

How do you know if you should spend more effort on learning how to dress well? You probably haven’t thought enough about dressing well if any of these fit you

  • Optimize your clothes mainly for comfort or convenience
  • Actively dislike the idea of paying attention to clothes
  • You don’t know what your appearance signals

Objections

Some people object, “This kind of game is wasteful, and I won’t participate!”. But that option is not available to you.  You cannot stop other people from making guesses about you. If you want to be altruistic, there are far more effective ways to improve the world than refraining from this status game.

Another objection I’ve seen is, “The way I dress signals that I’m beyond petty status games”. However, what you signal is not what you intend to signal, but the actual guesses that other people make based on how you dress, and there is basically no way to signal “I am beyond petty status games”.

The How

If you don’t know much about how to dress well, it may seem like a power inherently and permanently closed to nerds. But it turns out its pretty straightforward to gain this power. The basics of fit are relatively simple and logical once you know them, and fit is the cornerstone of style, and the rest is relatively simple as well, though it does take work.

There is some explicit knowledge that’s useful which you can get by reading some guides. My recommendations are here. The rest is implicit learning which you gain by time spent examining good examples and bad examples of dressing and observing the people you want to associate with. And of course most importantly by practice dressing and then getting live feedback from someone skilled in the art.

Digging into ACE: Priors

I and others are digging into Animal Charity Evaluators, diving deep on their research, to give them critical feedback and give other people an outside perspective. Before doing (most) research I’m recording my priors. My primary target is their fundamental research on leafleting.

I’ve already done a little bit of digging, so this isn’t totally unbiased.

ACE’s numbers on leafleting look unrealistically good, so I expect our investigations will push that number downwards. I expect they are not being pessimistic enough. I do expect them to be very open about their research.

I expect ACE to have been pretty thorough in most areas, but to have made some significant errors in some spots that we will find that make the leaflet effectiveness numbers go down. I worry that our modifications will make leafleting seem drastically less effective, but I guess it will just look somewhat less effective. I worry that we they will be reluctant to change things based on our feedback, but that’s not really based on anything.

Meetup Retrospective: Donation Decision Day 2014

At the end of 2014 (December 28th), the Seattle Effective Altruists group ran a hackday/workshop called Donation Decision Day for people to come and make their final donation decisions for the year. The idea was for people to come work out how much they wanted to donate and where they wanted to donate to. If they got stuck, they could talk with a partner to help troubleshoot their situation.

Overall, the Donation Decision Day was very successful, and will definitely be a yearly event. I think other groups might be able to copy it successfully. What follows are some thoughts and observations about the event. The Seattle group is unusual in that it’s mostly working programmers instead of students, so other groups holding similar events might look different.

Several people expressed some confusion about what kind of event it was going to be (event description at the bottom), so perhaps some people were scared off the event by a confusing description. Need a better name and description next year.

Since this was an especially action oriented event, I had hoped we would get people who had only been lightly involved or not involved at all to come, so the event would serve as an outreach event. But, that didn’t happen at all. 11 people showed up (about average), but they tended to be the most committed of the group, not the lightly interested. Next year, I would like to try specifically to get new people to come, as I think this is both a natural introductory meeting and a high impact activity. Not sure how to do that, though. We’ve discussed trying to run similar outreach events at our workplaces, but haven’t made concrete plans to try this.

A couple people were giving nothing or smallish donations, several people giving 5-20% and one person giving significantly more. I liked that there was a big spread of what people felt comfortable with. People lightly encouraged each other to give more during discussion of how much to give, but I think mostly avoided pressuring each other.

One person told me they gave dramatically more because of the meetup than they otherwise would. I think I probably gave about 10% more than I would have otherwise definitely was more efficient about it. Several people had productive 1-on-1 discussions about where their donations would go. We also coordinated with the Vancouver group to trade AMF and Give Directly donations, which allowed the Vancouver group to get the tax deductions on their donations and donate more.

The event description we used:

Lets get together and work on making our final donation decisions for the year!

Doesn’t matter if you’re giving $20,000 or $20.

Doesn’t matter if you’ve never done research on charities, or if you’ve read the primary literature on malaria net research.

Wherever you’re at, try to beat your personal best: give a little more this year and do a little better research this year.

Come and work on your personal donation decisions; with a partner or by yourself. Do research, run the numbers, and if you run into trouble, have a 1-on-1 discussion with someone about it.

Once you’ve made your decisions, send out your checks with our stamps!

Come starting at 11am to have a short discussion about donor advised funds etc.

People will be here all day, so feel free to come at any time.

Donations for 2014

In the sprit of normalizing talking about charitable giving (and to encourage myself to push myself a little harder), I’m going to do something uncomfortable and brag about my giving this last year.

Last year I gave 17.5% of my income to charity, up from 13.5% the year before. Which is a personal best.

65% to GiveWell unrestricted
15% to Against Malaria Foundation
10% to Center for Applied Rationality
05% to Machine Intelligence Research Institute
05% to Animal Charity Evaluators

This year, I want to plan my donations more in advance and spend more time thinking concretely about where my donations have the highest marginal impact, and to push myself a little harder.

A Moment of Darkness and Silence [Solstice 2014]

This is the speech I read for the first Secular Solstice in Seattle in 2014. At first I felt vulnerable about having written this, but now I feel okay about it. I would now appreciate brutally honest constructive criticism. I think people are reluctant to criticize personal writing such as this.

(The room is bathed in darkness except for a single candle beside me.)

When I was young, my brother was about 6 and I was about 10, my mom died. I tell it from my perspective because that’s what I know, but this story is sad not because she was lost to those of us who loved her, but because of what she herself lost. Like you and I, she had a rich internal life. She had hopes and dreams, quirks and flaws.

One of the ways this experience shaped me is that it gave me a visceral sense that the universe has no fairness built into it. Here in the western world we have softened its edges a little, made a little protective cocoon around ourselves. We are not too likely to starve, and we stay warm all year round. This gives us the illusion that nothing too bad can happen. But the universe is vast, and powerful, and we are still at the mercy of its workings.

Bad things do happen.

The second time the cancer came, it came quickly. 9 months between when she first found it till she passed into nothingness. For the first 6 months, she was hopeful. But it soon became clear she was not going to get better. She chose not to try a painful final desperate round of chemo.

My father told me how I was sitting in the living room with him, putting away my legos and him sitting close by. I turned to him to ask “tell me the truth dad, is mom going to die?”. He says he briefly considered lying to me, but then decided he could not and told me “yes honey, she’s very ill, she’s probably going to die”.

As mom had grown sicker, my aunt came to visit us to help take care of us and my mom. She helped cook, and put us to bed and mothered us. My brother and I became very attached to her, she became our mother figure to a large extent. I feel very sad when I think what this must have been like for my mom to see. To be tired and frightened. She was desperately in need of affection, touch and love, and seeing her children’s affections shift to someone else was very painful for her. She told my dad she wished it wouldn’t happen that way.

As she worsened, I imagine she must have felt a terrible panic. Feeling her body and mind falling apart, and knowing that soon she would cease to be. Like gripping a rock with your hands and digging your feet into the earth to steady yourself on the edge of a vast and dark chasm and feeling the rock in your hand slowly crumble in your grip and the earth below you erode away. Wanting to struggle but having nothing to reach for.

My brother and I were at school when she died. I remember seeing my dad and uncle near the car in the parking lot. When my dad told us she was gone, I remember being shocked and starting to cry.

Later, I remember walking into my parents room, the lights dimmed low and seeing her empty body lying on the bed.

There are no rules of fairness built into the universe. The rocks have no concept of pleasure and pain. The stars don’t know love or hate. The ocean is ignorant of good and evil. The laws of motion are deaf to our wails.

A moment of silence and darkness.

(I blow out the last candle and we sit in darkness for about one minute. Then, I strike a match and relight the candle.)

Funny quirks of reality cause us to live and die. Like whether a particular cell had a particular kind of mutation that caused it to multiply unboundedly. If the universe could bend its rules the tiniest amount to save a dying woman, it would not do so.

At the same time, the universe does not oppose us. Sometimes, funny quirks of reality lead millions to be saved.

My mom did not die during childbirth. She was free to pursue her love of language. She was well nourished and stayed warm all year. She could speak with her family even though they lived hundreds of miles away. Her story is one of both great blessing and great tragedy.

Once, we were all at grave risk from bacterial infection. Small wounds could spiral out of control until we died painfully. But we have discovered that funny quirks of chemistry and biology we call antibiotics can easily defeat most infections.

Once, when we were cold, we had to shiver through the frost and night. But today, through a funny quirk of nature we keep ourselves warm with small amounts of oil and insulated walls.

Once, when we were separated from our loved ones by great distances, we could never hear their voices. But we discovered that a funny quirk of physics lets the very emptiness between us carry our thoughts and voices across vast distances to our loved ones. We can see them any time we wish.

It is up to us to seize these odd quirks of nature and make the best we can of them.

This room is full of people who do that.

Each one of us brings love to the universe, to each other. We give our sisters laughter, the kind that takes you by surprise and leaves you rolling on the couch, when we joke with them. We give our brothers comfort and touch. We give friends connection, a sense of belonging, when we sit and eat with them. We give ourselves a feeling of accomplishment, the kind that gives you hope for the future, when we help others. We give our children play and excitement when we imagine with them.

Many here are doing even more. Some are studying to be nurses, and care for the suffering every day. Others teach us compassion, and make the world a more understanding place. Others work and donate many thousands of dollars a year towards eradicating extreme poverty. Others hope to save the entire world, to punch death right in the face. Still others personally spread information about the best ways to help the extremely poor. Others search tirelessly for the most effective ways to alleviate the terrible suffering of factory animals. And we’re all pushing each other to do better each and every year.

Being here with you, I am hopeful and excited about the future.

This room is full of people who make the world less ugly, less an ocean of pain and death. People who are working to make tomorrow brighter than today, in one way or another.

I am grateful to have you a part of my life, and to be part of yours.

(I light a candle I hold using the single lit candle.)

Spread your light to others.

(I light two people’s candles and they begin to spread their fire to others. Soon the whole room is alight.)

Zinc for colds

Evidence suggests zinc gluconate and zinc acetate shortens colds by about a day. As far as I know, zinc is the only cold remedy with good evidence for it. Cochrane Reviews, famous for their quality, has a review of the evidence for it, which is strong, but not perfect.

How to find it? LookFeatured image for dissolvable zinc tablets at the pharmacy that say they’re for colds. They will often say they are ‘homeopathic’ because this allows them to skirt FDA regulations. Don’t let that scare you off. 

Make sure to follow the directions on the back, you want to avoid eating or drinking for 15 minutes after as its thought to work by coating the back of your throat with zinc ions. Also, start using them as soon as you notice symptoms.

Spreading the mantle of heroic responsibility

Eric Rogstad and I started Seattle Effective Altruists, little over 6 months ago. We quickly gained several regular attendees and had about a meetup once a month. Unfortunately, soon after Eric left for a new life of whimsy and adventure, so I came to do most of the organizing and logistics. It felt firmly “my” thing. Its kind of fun to be in charge of something, but isn’t very sustainable and probably healthier to have several involved people.

Edit: I also noticed that it being “my” thing prevented other people from other people making it their thing.

I decided I didn’t want it to be “my” thing, and I wanted to get more people interested in helping. The advice saw somewhere was to ask people to do small things to help out, and then bigger things until they’re pretty involved.

This led me to look for as many things I could delegate as possible. Things like greeting newcomers, making sure meetups are cross-posted, posting meetup notes, etc. This went okay, but there wasn’t that much to delegate, and it didn’t seem to lead to significantly increased involvement. One positive outcome is that I now reflexively ask myself if a given task is something I can ask someone else to do.

The other deliberate strategy I tried seemed to work quite well:

Whenever I found myself talking one-on-one with someone who had come more than once, I would ask them what they were excited about in EA and/or the group. I would talk with them about it, and if we came up with ways the group could help their goal, I would ask them if they would be willing to help organize and lead that meet up. Then, later, I would instant message them about actually planning the meetup.

This worked surprisingly well, three different people have come to lead meetups this way, and there are a couple of other people who are interested. One person led a meetup about existential risk, one about criticisms of EA, and one a factory farming documentary night.

Currently, I’m trying to spread ownership of the group more permanently by creating a core of 3-5 people who take heroic responsibility for the group, as I have seen suggested for student EA groups. Two of the obvious people to ask came from the people I asked to help run a meetup. We’ll see how that goes.

Brainstorming

I think rationality techniques are pretty interesting and cool, but there aren’t that many that I recognize as “rationality techniques” that I find myself using all the time. One I can think of is “when you want clarity, ask for examples”. For example, if someone at work is arguing that our team shouldn’t use design X for a new project, and I see why clearly, I’ll ask them for examples of the kinds of problems they’re worried about. I started doing this during the CFAR camp I attended, and I don’t think I’ve stopped since. 

The only other rationality technique I use regularly is brainstorming, and that’s the one I want to talk about.

My roommates and I brainstorm for each other pretty regularly, especially for things like thinking of gifts friends and family, meetup activities, dates, costumes, dinner or party themes, but some more important things. Brainstorming seems to give us more decent ideas than we would otherwise have for problems like these. 

Official Brainstorming Protocol

  1. Get 1-4 people
  2. Name brainstorm goal
  3. Set timer for 5 minutes
  4. Silently write down as many ideas as you can think of till the timer goes off.
    • Write down all ideas, even bad ones.
  5. Each person shares all the ideas they wrote down
    • Don’t criticize the ideas
  6. Discuss promising ideas

Writing down all your ideas is hard; it’s difficult not to filter. Luckily, this skill seems to get easier with practice. The protocol seems to work best with other people, but I’ve used this frequently by myself too. 

One particularly successful case came when last time I was looking for a job. I brainstormed for potential leads, people to talk to and companies to investigate. This led to an excellent list of leads that turned to a number of interviews. Many of these, I would have thought of naturally, but some seem like they only would have come out because of brainstorming and doing it at once allowed me to have them all up front.

We’ve also used this technique for more troubleshooting life issues, like getting to bed on time, trying to ignore my tasklist less, or how to have more organizational time in the morning. Brainstorming has helped on these bigger problems, but less dramatically. It often comes up with an extra idea or two to try and it usually helps me feel more excited about trying things, but doesn’t lead to something that works reliably.

Some domains, especially lower stakes ones, seem to benefit a lot more from simply having lots of ideas. And for these brainstorming seems very helpful. 

Introduction to Style for Effective Altruists

A couple years ago, I gave a presentation on Style/Fashion for Effective Altruists/aspiring rationalists, and I was quite happy with how it turned out. We recorded the first half, and you can find the slides here (short version here). We followed up the presentation with a trip to a couple of department stores, Nordstrom and Target, which turned out to be very helpful.

Follow up advice

One thing I didn’t mention during the presentation is that, it takes a while to internalize the lessons of fit and color/contrast and style, so it’s best not to rush in and spend a lot of money at first. Get a couple of simple, basic things first, try them out for a while, and gradually expand your comfort zone.

Sources for future learning

  • r/malefashionadvice has many good guides on the sidebar. The guides are all user contributed, so keep in mind that some will be much better than others.
  • r/femalefashionadvice has several good guides. I have less experience with this subreddit, so I’d love feedback.
  • Guide to fit for several different areas. More in depth than what we covered.
  • Quest items: A basic wardrobe with several very concrete suggestions for each area.
  • What are you wearing today? threads are a great source of pictures with commentary you can use to learn via reinforcement learning.
  • A guide to shoes. As I mentioned, the style of shoes is comparatively important, and guides are especially helpful here. This guide is really good.
  • Primer Magazine has a good set of fit guides (index after the picture)
  •  The shirt and pants fit guides are both good.